By Burnett Munthali
In the race for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Georgia has emerged as a pivotal battleground, with former President Donald Trump poised to potentially reclaim the state after his 2020 loss to President Joe Biden. Recent polls show Trump with a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, although the race remains tight.
A series of reputable polls conducted in the past month suggest that Trump is currently leading Harris in Georgia, though the margin varies depending on the source. A Quinnipiac University poll puts Trump ahead by six points, while a Cook Political Report survey shows a narrower two-point lead. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll indicates that Trump and Harris are tied, reflecting the competitive nature of the contest in the state.
Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, well-known poll aggregators, show Trump with a slim lead in Georgia, with FiveThirtyEight projecting Trump ahead by 1.3 points and RealClearPolitics by 1.5 points. These leads highlight the challenges Harris faces in a state that has recently become more of a swing state, shifting from its traditional Republican roots.
Georgia’s evolution from a solidly red state to a competitive swing state can be traced to the changing demographics of the Atlanta metro area. Between 2010 and 2020, the population in Atlanta’s suburbs grew by 15%, while the white population decreased by 2%, according to the latest census data. This diversification has fueled Democratic gains in the state, contributing to Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 and the flipping of Georgia’s Senate seats by Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.
The shift in Georgia has been a decade in the making, with Hillary Clinton making significant inroads in the Atlanta suburbs during the 2016 presidential election, winning eight out of 10 counties despite losing statewide. This trend continued in subsequent elections, with former gubernatorial candidate Stacy Abrams and President Biden winning many of these suburban areas by wider margins, underscoring the growing influence of suburban voters in Georgia’s electoral landscape.
Despite Georgia’s newfound battleground status, the state remains largely controlled by Republicans at the local and congressional levels. The state Senate, House, and governor’s office are all under Republican control, and nine of Georgia’s 14 representatives in Congress are Republicans. Governor Brian Kemp has also successfully fended off Democratic challenges from Stacy Abrams, expanding his margin of victory from one point in 2018 to seven points in 2022. This Republican dominance at the state level underscores the difficulty Harris will face in trying to flip the state.
Georgia is just one of several key swing states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Poll trackers show Harris leading Trump in crucial states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, while Trump holds the advantage in North Carolina and Georgia. The path to victory for both candidates is narrow, with the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin likely to play a critical role.
For Harris to win, she would need to secure all three Rust Belt states, along with the other non-swing states Biden won in 2020, which would give her the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory. However, if Trump manages to win Georgia, North Carolina, and one of the Rust Belt states (most likely Pennsylvania, according to polls), he could secure enough electoral votes to return to the White House.
In conclusion, as the 2024 presidential race heats up, Georgia will remain a state to watch. Trump’s slight lead in recent polls suggests he has the potential to flip the state back to Republican control, but Harris remains competitive, particularly given the state’s demographic shifts. With the election just over a year away, both candidates will likely continue to focus on Georgia as they vie for its crucial 16 electoral votes.
Georgia’s status as a battleground state reflects broader national trends, with suburban voters playing an increasingly important role in deciding the outcome of elections. As the race tightens, the decisions made by candidates and their campaigns in Georgia could very well shape the future of U.S. politics.
