As the 2025 Tripartite general elections are drawing nigh, it is interesting to note that many voters are grappling with the uncertainty over the possible electoral alliances.
The truth of the matter is that it is highly improbable that a single party can solely attain 50% plus one majority of the total cast votes.
In accordance with the 2020 Constitutional Court verdict, the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) is obligated to announce the victory of any presidential candidate who unequivocally amasses at least half plus one of the total cast votes.
This is why it is not surprising to observe that many political parties are strategically positioning themselves for a potential formidable electoral alliance.
It is therefore the gist of this social article to unravel the possible permutations of viable political alliances.
For starters, as stated in previous articles two years ago that a fierce electoral battle would ensue between two major political parties vis a vis the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the erstwhile mighty Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). These are the two top main political parties according to 2019 Elections results which were statistically similar to 2020 fresh presidential elections.
It is also of paramount importance to acknowledge that the winner of 2025 presidential election will largely depend upon strategic formation of electoral alliances by either MCP or DPP. Suffice to pinpoint that the claim by smaller parties such as People’s Development Party (PDP) is just rhetorical.
In fact, the truth of the matter is that all minor parties such as UTM, Aford, UDF and many others are just strategically marketing themselves to form viable electoral alliance with either MCP or DPP.
However, one pertinent question that needs to be answered is, which political parties exude a magnetic affinity towards the formation of a formidable electoral alliance with either MCP or DPP? Objectively tackling this conundrum requires a comprehensive analysis and understanding of the prevailing current political landscape in Malawi.
It is on record that nine political parties chose to enter into a political marriage of convenience dubbed Tonse Alliance during 2020 fresh presidential elections.
However. four years down the line after taking over government, Malawians have noticed that the Tonse Alliance has started to crumble down.
Needless to say that some parties such as Aford and UTM publicly have denounced their membership in this failed alliance.
It therefore does not require a renowned rocket scientist to appreciate that these parties will not wish to enter into electoral alliance with MCP simply because MCP advertently chose to disrespect Tonse Alliance pact.
Furthermore, recently many Malawians got a surprise of the century when MCP was unceremoniously barred from attending the 2024 United Democratic Front (UDF) convention.
This entails that UDF is not comfortable to partner with MCP again.
Additionally, the way MCP-led government handled the former Vice President, Saulos Chilima’s plane crash leaves a lot to be desired.
Four months down the line, it is heart breaking to note that no tangible report has yet been produced surrounding Chilima’s demise.
This has sparked lots of curiosity, speculations and distrust against the incumbent MCP-led government.
As a result, many political parties are likely to be reluctant to partner with MCP in the forth coming general elections.
In conclusion, it is highly likely that Malawi will again witness the formation of a grand electoral alliance of many opposition political parties.
Just as MCP enjoyed the Tonse Alliance of nine opposition political parties in 2020, DPP will possibly form a grand alliance with many opposition parties such as Aford, UTM, UDF and many others prior to 2025 General Elections.
If this happens, DPP will therefore most likely emerge victorious in the coming elections.
