The campaign to form the next government has started. Unlike other campaigns, politicians will not get away by promising a mirage. People will scrutinise every promise made.
Voters have begun probing candidates across different platforms, and it is becoming a norm. The media-shy candidates would see themselves disadvantaged as we come to the sharpened end of the knife.
For the 2023 elections, Nigerians need a government to deliver what they promised during their tenure. This time around, voters will hope to see the results of promises on election day. The state of hardship in Nigeria has made voters follow John Maynard Keynes’ philosophy of providing an immediate solution instead of waiting for results in the long run. Keynes believed the long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. Those Nigerian politicians who usually say when the storm is past, the ocean is flat again will face the wrath of voters. That means no one will vote for those who promise that all will be well again when Buhari leaves. People are aware that in the long run, we are all dead. Nigeria needs an urgent solution.
Before the 2015 elections, Buhari and his team challenged Nigerians to vote them out if they underperformed. Buhari specifically made Nigerians believe insecurity and corruption are transitory concerns he would correct once in office. Voters had high hopes that he would control the insecurity issues, solve corruption in the country and improve the lives of Nigerians, including those who had no support for him. But now, most people believe that this administration is incapable of improving anything in the country. Like other members of this government, the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, is complicit. He was in charge of the economy and led the country for two years when Buhari recovered from sickness. Given the state of the economy, it is hard to argue that he is too big for his boots and not any good.
After almost seven years in power, the Buhari administration still blames PDP for its failures. Historians will tell you this has been an old trick since the Biblical era. That is, whenever terrible things happen to a community, like economic problems, floods, fires, plagues, etc., ‘the others’ get the blame.
Data shows that Nigeria’s economy is not in a good place. Buhari’s administration has overseen two successive economic recessions and an enormous rising debt. Despite the record public spending, income per person has declined by 33% since 2014 – $3098 in 2014 and $2083 in 2021. Nigeria remains the poverty capital of the world, and unemployment keeps rising. The country’s growing young population shows the youth dominates the unemployment statistics. Indicators like current prices of daily goods and services, available jobs, salaries, the value of the Naira, and activities in the local markets describes the Nigerian economy poorly. Of course, it is common knowledge, and there is no credible explanation defence from this government.
The government lacks a coherent economic policy and strategy. It took Buhari over six years to appoint an Economic Adviser – the person who thought the linear solution to the unemployment crisis was pushing everyone to the farm. The government then backtracked on the bid to pay a monthly dole of N5,000 to 40 million people to address the country’s economic issue. One can argue that it was because the public quickly understood it was a naked attempt to bribe voters to win the February 2023 elections. It has since failed. On the face of it, one might think it is a well-intentioned idea but poorly designed. Even the World Bank fell for the plot. It is the old method of promising the world to the voters but only to deliver an atlas. The Minister of Finance later confessed that the government did not realise the policy would increase inflation in the system. They have no consistent rules and action plans, making building a competent institutional structure difficult.
That’s not all. The government is currently making Nigerians pay for the reversal of this policy. Today, the government is importing sub-standard, low-cost products for Nigerians as they look for ways to cushion the price of fuel imports. It is corruption, but as usual, they will look for someone to blame – like Duke oil. It is not the first time this has happened under this government. Back in July 2020, some samples from illegal refineries in the Niger Delta tested to be of higher quality than imported petrol that the government was importing. The products have health and environmental risks – dangerous. This worrying act happens as the government raises the fuel subsidy to an unprecedented level. The fuel subsidy will increase the public expenditure, translating to higher deficits. Unfortunately, Nigerians will only know the true state of the economy after this government has departed. Of course, the public will expect the next government to call the Ministers of Petroleum and Finance to account for this despicable act.
Another example like the regressive taxation system has been shown to raise the inequality level of the country. Estimates show that the taxation system reduces the tax revenue, which affects our relationship with borrowers like the International Monetary Fund. The fundamental cause of the problem must be understood. There is a broken economic decision-making system by this administration. Those in charge have repeatedly failed to recognise the requirements of a coherent economic strategy.
Therefore, the next government must understand how to provide a vibrant economy where prosperity, opportunities and trust between communities exists. They should go beyond building trains, roads, and bridges in certain constituencies, to providing public goods like basic health and education, security, electricity, and digital infrastructure. Delivering these will deliver instant results to the economy. These are low hanging fruits that are far from the core problems of the economy, like the weak domestic productive capacity and imports-dependency.
Nigeria desperately needs a functioning nervous system. The next government must demonstrate a decent understanding of policies and present its action plans to voters. Nigerians truly need a government that will deliver quick results.
Dr Nasir Aminu is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at Cardiff Metropolitan University. (Twitter: @AminuEcon)
